The High Council of State Finance resolves the government’s optimistic forecasts

The battle for retirement is accelerating. Several days after strong mobilizations against the reform of the executive power, Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt and Minister of Public Service Stanislas Guerini presented the text in the Council of Ministers this Monday. Olivier Dussopt made a statement to the press, noting the dispute in the entire area “This pension reform project is different from the one we could present a few months ago. »

The two ministers sent to the front determination Passing the text at all costs despite all the calls made by the trade unions. They particularly stressed that the government would not abandon raising the retirement age to 64, the most symbolic and arguably the most criticized measure of the reform.

Regarding the macroeconomic impact, the Supreme Council of State Finance under the Court of Accounts has published. feedback This Monday, January 23, is serious about amending the Social Security Funding Bill (PLFRSS). “”” Given the incompleteness Information transmitted to it by the Government, HSYK cannot assess the medium-term impact of the pension reform on public finances; explains the jurisdiction.

As for the impact study mentioned in several media reports, the Minister for Full Employment said at the time of the Council of Ministers report that it was the “provisional” version that was still being circulated. is asked by gallery, the minister’s entourage has not yet announced when it will be announced.

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Growth scenario considered “optimistic” and “high”.

The growth projections kept by the government in the bill are considered “optimistic” by the magistrates. In a text sent to the Supreme State Finance Council, Matignon did not change the 1% growth forecast stemming from the presentation of the financial law for 2023 (PLF 2023) presented last September. Rue Cambon experts note that the consensus of economists (Consensus forecasts) hopes for an increase of 0.2% this year.

And the Treasury forecast remains “It exceeds all forecasts of France and international economic institutions. » HCFP believes that Bercy predicts “It underestimates the factors currently at work that are restraining activity, particularly the high level of inflation and the continued tightening of monetary policy.”

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Inflation: Outlook considered “slightly weak”.

As for the consumer price index, the Supreme Council of State Finance takes into account the government’s forecast “a little weak”. According to the figures included in the PLFRSS, inflation will increase by an average of 4.2% in 2023. The consensus of economists, in turn, expects inflation to be 4.8%. As for Banque de France (5.5%), Rexecode (5.2%) or OFCE (4.6%), they are betting on higher inflation than the Treasury. “The government’s expected reduction in inflation seems fast” HCFP notes.

The institution believes that the transmission of increases in producer and import prices to consumer prices should continue to support core inflation, that is, without the most volatile prices (fresh produce, oil products).

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400 million euros in additional costs in 2023

During the presentation of the pension reform on January 10, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne explained that the pension reform could generate 17.7 billion in additional income by 2030. “This reform aims to restore balance in the pension system by 2030. These measures make it possible to generate 18 billion euros in revenue. They will allow both to save money and to finance other measures, such as maintaining early departure for disabled workers, disabled workers. In the speech of the Council of Ministers, Olivier Dussopt insisted.

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In the medium term, the High Council of State Finance did not make budget forecasts, considering the incompleteness of the transmitted data. As for 2023, the organization estimates that the net cost of the reform will be 400 million euros.

In more detail, 50,000 people may postpone retirement this year. This will lead to a 200 million euro cost reduction in 2023. At the same time, increasing the minimum contribution (€400 million), measures related to hardship and occupational attrition (€100 million) or financing the transition between employment and retirement (€100 million) will lead to an increase in costs of €600 million.

Taking into account the hypothetical entry into force of the reform on September 1 and the expansion of this reform, the Supreme Council of State Finance indicates that the pension reform will take place in 2023. “has an insignificant effect on the debt ratio. Only then will this effect be significant. »

France’s public debt is still growing under the weight of public spending