HCP forecasts 3.3% growth and 1.9% inflation in 2023

As at the beginning of every year, on January 12 this year, the HCP published its new estimates of economic growth for 2022 and 2023, as well as their implications for domestic and external macroeconomic balances.

In 2022, the growth, According to the new figures reported by HCP, it stopped 1.3%, with the level inflation record 6.7% Instead of an average of 1.6% over the period 2015-2020. This inflation figure specifies the national statistical institute, measured by the evolution of the consumer price index.

Moroccans had a tough year in 2022, with purchasing power falling by 1.9% under the combined effects of a weak agricultural year (which has a strong impact on household incomes) and inflation.

Bold recovery in growth in 2023…thanks to rain

Things will improve in 2023… The HCP expects GDP growth of 3.3%, a 2-point increase over 2022, while stressing that the international environment remains very restrictive with geopolitical tensions continuing and stability maintained. the high level of prices leads to a decrease in the volume of world trade, which will increase by only 1.6% after 4% in 2022.

A data that will directly affect the demand addressed to Morocco should show a decrease in its growth rate, falling to 3.2% in 2023 against 7.6% in 2022. the Saving MRE transfers and with a slight increase travel recipes and IDE Compared to 2022.

As noted by the Ahmed Lahlimi-led institution, these growth prospects also take into account the new provisions of the 2023 finance law, especially the provisions on tax policy, public investments, supporting consumer prices and improving the economy. agricultural value added compared to the previous season. Thus, HCP calculates the average of the 2022-2023 campaign, together with the consolidation of other crops and livestock.

“Delayed rains and the consequences of the previous campaign’s severe drought have confirmed a difficult start to the 2022-2023 agricultural campaign. Nevertheless, the recent rains in December should be beneficial for rainfed crops and livestock. According to the above assumptions, the primary sector in 2022 should show 9% added value in 2023, instead of an expected 15.6% decline per year,” explains the HCP in its forecast budget.

However, secondary activities, although slightly lower than in 2022, should continue to suffer from the negative impact of sluggish external demand and high commodity prices. Therefore, non-agricultural added value should increase by only 2.7% against 3.4%. % in 2022.

Return of inflation to normal level

Another important piece of information emerging from the HCP’s forecast budget: a return to normal inflation in 2023. According to the forecasts of the National Statistics Office, in 2023, domestic prices will rise slightly in line with the decline in prices. global commodity pressures. Thus, inflation measured by the hidden GDP index should be 1.9%.

According to the HCP, this softening of inflation is explained by the calm that should be experienced in the international commodity markets, which should develop at a moderate level due to the weakness of world demand as a result of the tightening of monetary policy and the increase of key interest rates. The spread of Covid in the world and in China.

Based on World Bank forecasts, HCP notes that the price of a barrel of oil should be around 88 dollars in 2023, against an average of 100 dollars in 2022.

“The deterioration of the global economic context and the resurgence of the epidemic in China should moderate the demand for oil, which should curb the impact of the expected decrease in supply, especially due to the sanctions imposed on Russian oil products.” HCP.

According to HCP, the same trend will be observed in the prices of agricultural and mining materials:

“Prices of key agricultural commodities, which will show double-digit growth in 2022, are expected to ease slightly in 2023, reflecting the prospects of better global production and lower input costs, especially fertilizers. , base metals will continue to see price declines in 2023, in line with the decline in industrial activity in advanced economies.”

This decline in the inflation rate below the 2% mark should underline that there should be some revival in domestic demand. This should continue to support economic growth in 2023, contributing more to GDP than in 2022. This will not be the case for net foreign demand, whose contribution to GDP growth will remain negative in 2023.

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