All energy producers in 2050?
Warning: prospective research, in other words, does not claim to predict the future, much less to write it, but merely to anticipate various situations without prejudging their likely, desirable, or feared nature. Accuracy is important, as CGAAER learns
On the decarbonization trajectory of agriculture by 2050, given the impact on the physiognomy of French agriculture at this deadline, it can be fiery.
An energy backup plan within the reach of households… or almost
A single decarbonisation scenario on target The CGAAER mission presents three decarbonisation scenarios until 2050, corresponding to three trajectories (optimal, minimum and median) related to public policy options (taxation of petroleum products, support and availability of renewable energies, development of self-consumption…) and uncertainties chose the scenario. Taking into account exogenous factors such as the evolution of total energy prices, the evolution of the payment of food production compared to the total purchasing power, and guaranteed technological innovations. Conclusion: A single scenario known as “energy producers” makes it possible to achieve the decarbonisation goal.“This scenario corresponds to the successful transition of large and medium-sized farms reaching 240,000 in 2050 and the virtual disappearance of micro-farms reaching 150,000 in 2021”
The energy complex of the agricultural sector is dominated by petroleum products, which account for 72% of consumption, ahead of electricity (18%), natural gas (6%) and renewable energy (4%). Tractors and other self-propelled machinery account for 53% of total energy consumption in the sector, ahead of livestock buildings (11%) and greenhouses and high shelters (10%). According to RICA data, in 2018 energy purchases represent an average of 6% of operating costs, i.e. an average of €11,600 per year, with a limit of 3% in viticulture and 10% in horticulture.
The median scenario, known as “watered-down voluntarism” and not allowing for the 2050 decarbonisation target, is a “dual” agriculture where 150,000 farms co-exist, modernized, decarbonised and supported by around 130,000 others. with increasing subsidies where energy becomes a structural barrier. The minimum scenario is that reduction without an energy transition is neither incentivizing for renewables nor disincentive for fossil fuels, leading to a “Darwinian expansion” involving 200,000 farms under the influence of enforced vigilance.
ENR and GNR
Greenhouses: in search of lost energy A special effort will be made to deploy NGV compression stations on the farm, which will enable self-supply from methanizers and local distribution in parallel with injection. Renewable energy sources will also see the rapid development of medium-power photovoltaic panels “in-ground”, cultivation of biomass and biofuels, installation of methanizers and wind turbines. Support for the development of renewable energies will be financed, in particular, from the revenues obtained from the zero rating of fossil fuels. For a period of 10 years from 2023 or 2024
“, creates a budget of 1.4 billion euros per year.
More income, but not for everyone This measure will lead to a 15% reduction in average income of €25,000. But again, according to the same scenario, the development and evaluation of renewable energies More than €20,000 extra income per household in 2050 at €5,000 per year, i.e. a net income of 30% on average compared to 2021 at constant euros for a modest increase in employment
Agrivoltaic pear to quench thirst permanently
This scenario will cover 80% of the farms: 65% have solar panels, 15% have biomass or biofuel products, 5% have a methanizer, 2% have wind turbines, and 2% have an on-site photovoltaic power plant. there is a field. . Excludes farms that do not produce renewable energy, except for certain productions (viticulture, market gardening, pastoralism). “Such a scenario would lead to the disappearance of non-energy farmers in 2050 and up to 7,000 farmers per year between 2022 and 2035. – the report says. While their energy costs are less than 8% in 2020, they will exceed 30% of their direct costs. Unless we can develop sufficient renewable energy production by farmers and ensure that this production is not limited to a small minority of farms, it will not be possible to offset the increase in energy costs economically, except by creating new subsidies for farmers.
“. Let us inform you that the title of the report released to the public in December last year was: “Decarbonizing 100% of the energy used in agriculture by 2050: it is possible!”.
General Council for Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs