Encouraging forecasts marked by rapid growth

The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has just published its economic report for the fourth quarter of 2022 and its forecast for the first quarter of 2023. Unlike the previous year, 2023 is shaping up to be a successful year according to 2023 analysis. As economic growth will accelerate, the HCP will reach 3.4% year-on-year volatility, instead of 0.3% growth in the same period of the previous year, the document said.

What about the last quarter of 2022? In its economic update, the HCP indicates that the national economy will grow by 1.4%. This figure takes into account sector estimates and indicators collected up to the end of December 2022, it explains. Thus, the value added of agriculture would have shown a decrease of 15.9% in the annual change instead of an increase of 17.8% a year ago.

As for consumer prices, HCP notes that they would continue to grow at the same rate of change as in the previous quarter, i.e. +8.1% annualized, instead of 2.5% recorded a year ago. For HCP, this steady pace would result in a slight decline in non-food prices, rising to +4.3% from +4.5% recorded in the previous quarter for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021. food prices would have accelerated by 14.1%.

In the inflation report, core inflation should reach 6.6% in all of 2022 and its core component should reach 5.8% after 1.7% in 2021. However, core inflation, which excludes prices subject to government intervention, and Products with Unstable prices, to reach +7.4% after +6.7% in the previous quarter and +2.9% in the same period of 2021 would continue to rise for, which is related to the still dynamic evolution and rise of the food component. in the prices of the services included in it.

Liquidity requirement

When it comes to money supply, all of them[1]According to HCP, the days would increase[1]5.6%, compared to 4.1% a quarter ago, year-on-year. In Q4 2022, the need for bank liquidity would increase following an increase in fiduciary turnover. As for business investment, it seems to have slowed down a bit after a[1]got up a quarter before.

On the stock market side, HCP notes that the decline in the stock market would continue at a more pronounced pace through the fourth quarter of 2022. As a result of the continuation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the slowdown in the economic development of the national economy, and the continuous fall in the prices of several listed companies, the stock market indices could have marked a clear downward trend. rising inflationary pressures. In this context, the MASI index would fall 19.7% year-on-year and the market capitalization 18.8%, after falling 11.9% in the third quarter of 2022.

If we go back to the first quarter, the indicators look promising, although the growth forecast at the global level is subject to many uncertainties that may have an upward or downward impact on economic activity, including geopolitical processes, during the mentioned period. The health situation in Ukraine, China, the effectiveness and continuation of budget support, the impact of monetary tightening on consumption and investment, and the volatility of commodity markets.

Based on this observation, HCP estimates that global demand for Morocco will moderate with an expected increase of 3% in annual volatility instead of +4.1% in the same period a year ago. As for the contribution of exports to national growth, it should reach +2.4 points instead of +6.9 points a quarter ago.

Rain conditions

On another level, the continued tightening of monetary policy, on the other hand, will help to slow down business demand, the HCP emphasizes, but investment growth will be preserved thanks to the strengthening of support for public spending. Overall, the report notes that domestic demand should contribute to overall economic growth, reaching +3.2 points in the first quarter of 2023 instead of +0.8 points in the same period of the previous year.

According to the HCP, growth in Q1 2023 will be driven by the recovery of agricultural activities and continued strengthening of services driven by a return to normal winter rainfall conditions. Thus, value added excluding agriculture will show a 3% increase in annual volatility. Finally, the HCP reports that the 2022/2023 agricultural campaign was undoubtedly characterized by a 69% rainfall deficit in October and November 2022 compared to the same period of the normal year, but the return of rainfall in December led to it. improved water resources and returned the course of the agricultural campaign to the path of seasonal evolution. Encouraging signs ahead.

Wolondouka SIDIBE

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