Cac 40 has already gained about 5% since January 1st!

Posted January 4, 2023, 5:42 p.mUpdated January 4, 2023 at 6:11 p.m

The Paris Stock Exchange’s third session of the year and third bullish session is the first since late November-early December. Mainly driven by luxury players (LVMH, Kering, Hermes and L’Oreal) the Bedroom 40 At 6,776.43 points, well above 6,700 points, up 2.3%, the volume of transactions increased by 4.1 billion euros. Since January 1, the star index has gained 4.68%! As on Monday and Tuesday, economic indicators and lower gas prices supported the market, which continued to defy Wall Street’s volatility.

While Europe celebrates Dow Jones hardly earns 0.2%. It should be noted that the just-released ISM manufacturing index shows that the US economy lost momentum at the end of the year, but labor market conditions remain tight. ” The index’s decline was due to a further deterioration in the new orders component, which fell from 47.2 to 45.2, putting it at a level typically seen near or during a recession. “, explains Paul Ashworth, chief economist for North America at Capital Economics. If the economy is slipping, employment remains strong. According to the Jolts report, the voluntary departure rate in the private sector rose to 3% in November, compared to 2.9% in October. If 2021- If it is well below the peak of 3.4% reached in November 2018, this number could somewhat confuse the US Federal Reserve (Fed), as the market always tries to determine the “terminal” degree of monetary tightening action.

In this regard, it is not certain that the minutes of the meeting of the American Federal Reserve System (FED) to be published this evening on December 13 and 14 will shed additional light, except that the period of interest rate increase of the Fed funds will continue. . ” The FOMC minutes should confirm that the Fed intends to continue to tighten monetary policy significantly, even as it slows the pace of rate hikes. Remember, if the Fed decides to reduce the size of its hikes, it could go higher! Ipek Ozkardeskaya, chief economist of Swissquote, wrote this morning.

Slowing inflation in France… a temporary phenomenon?

On the Old Continent, we preferred to focus on the good news of the day, such as inflation in France. In December, the consumer price index rose 5.9% year-on-year, and European Union adjusted data rose 6.7%, after 7.1% in November. A drop is well received, but it can be misleading. ” We think French inflation has not yet peaked as the pump rebate was abolished on 1 January and regulated gas and electricity prices will be adjusted upwards next month. », nuance Mateusz Urban, chief economist of Oxford Economics.

At the level of the euro zone, the composite index (services and manufacturing) increased by 0.5 points compared to the preliminary estimate in December and by 1.5 points compared to November, reaching 49.3. “ This is the highest since July and indicates that the decline in activity is slowing, Mateusz Urban emphasizes. LServices surprised to the upside with a sector PMI reading of 49.8 on the back of lower inflation, a slowdown in demand deterioration and a continued firm labor market.. »

As in previous days, lower gas prices have pushed equity markets higher in Europe. Since its peak of €342 per megawatt hour was reached this summer, the delivery price of gas quoted on the TTF in Rotterdam in February has almost halved to below €70, which is below the level that existed before the start. war in ukraine. How to explain such a fall? On the one hand, particularly mild winter weather in Europe. On the other hand, inventory replenishment. Finally, the Old Continent’s success in finding an alternative to Russian gas by turning to liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers. ” That’s a lot better than many people feared, and it could mean prices will be lower this year than in 2022. says Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of gas research at Wood Mackenzie. Oil is also on the downside. A barrel of Brent oil from the North Sea has fallen to $78 against $140 at the beginning of March, and has fallen by 8% since January 1. The same is true for the American benchmark WTI, which is trading at $74.

In addition to high temperatures for the season, prices are melting as investors worry about the health implications of China’s unexpectedly brutal reopening of the economy. Many fear that contamination will occur in China or beyond.

Cycles in appearance

On the values ​​front, cycles Schneider-Electric, Excellent and Schneider-Electric Of the improvements made to Bernstein’s recommendations, he achieved “superior performance” for the first two and “market performance” for the third.

trigano It lost 0.16%, a decrease in turnover in the first quarter of 2022-2023, in a context still marked by supply difficulties in mobile bases for motorhomes. The recreational vehicle maker stressed that tensions are likely to ease, allowing it to consider increasing production in the coming months.

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