According to the first estimates, the economic growth rate in 2022 will be 1.3%

According to the economic report of the HCP, which published these first estimates, the national economy would show a growth in 2012 in 2012. 1.4% for Fourth quarter of 2022, in annual variation. Figures for the first three quarters were previously pegged at +0.3% (Q1), +2% (Q2) and +1.6% (Q3) by the national accounts. So the slowdown continued in the second half.

In the 4th quarter, agricultural value added would continue to decline by -15.9%, but the continued dynamics of market services would sustain a 3.4% improvement in non-agricultural activity over the same period.

Delay in non-agricultural activities

Value added after an average increase of 3.6% in the first three quarters of 2022 excluding agriculture it would have increased by 3.4% in the last quarter. Excluding manufacturing, growth in secondary sectors would decline, but activity in tertiary sectors would pick up and show a 5.7% year-on-year increase.

The pace of activity in transport and tourism, mainly market services, continues and contributes +1.5 points to the overall economic growth. The value added of the non-market third sector, in turn, accelerated after experiencing a slight slowdown in the third quarter of 2022.

Activity of manufacturing industries it would increase by 1.9% after +2.8% in the previous quarter. This slowdown could be attributed to weaker domestic demand, especially for industries related to construction, rubber and plastics production.

The supply of chemical products, which experienced a sharp increase in export prices, would continue its decline that began in mid-2022. Manufacturers would suffer from higher production costs compared to the same period in 2021, especially in the context of relatively easing supply challenges for the transport equipment manufacturing sector.

The pharmaceutical industry, transport equipment manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, the textile industry would have bucked the trend, benefiting from more dynamic foreign demand. In annual changes, their added values ​​would increase by 10.1%, 17.4% and 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022, respectively.

On the other hand, construction sector would demonstrate contraction It increased by 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. On the one hand, new housing production was expected to moderate amid weak real estate activity and reduced household demand.

On the other hand, the increase in production costs would lead operators to limit the import of construction materials and the use of local products. Thus, cement sales would continue their decline that started in February 2022 at a rate of -11.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022. This outperformance would be confirmed by a decline in loans to real estate developers amid continued concerns about margins.

In addition, mining activity Instead of -10.6% in the previous quarter, it would fall back by 11.6% year-on-year. A sharp increase in the export prices of non-metallic minerals would be accompanied by a decrease in their production.

In particular, the production of crude phosphate decreased by 24.6% against the background of more than double the increase of the international price. Exports of crude phosphate are said to have fallen more sharply, but the decline in demand from processing industries is said to have moderated amid expectations of a recovery in foreign demand for phosphate fertilizers after the decline. In the first half of 2022, the rate of use in agricultural production globally.

Agricultural activity continues to decline

Agricultural value added would show a year-on-year decline of 15.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, instead of an increase of 17.8% a year earlier. Productivity penalized by reductions in agricultural dam water resources, particularly seasonal market gardening and fruit crop yields, would reduce crop production and exacerbate increases in their consumer prices.

On the other hand, animal husbandry has been maintained at a relatively good level, especially thanks to the recovery of poultry farming. In the fourth quarter of 2022, broiler meat production would actually increase by 2.9%. Milk production would continue to suffer from higher animal feed prices, which would increase costs for breeders. Declining collections would support more intensive use of milk and milk products imports, which more than doubled in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.

By the end of December 2022, the national economic growth would thus be at the limit, taking into account the estimates and aggregated indicators by sector. +1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022, instead of the previous quarter’s +1.6%. This represents annual growth 1.3% around.

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