Although growth picked up slightly in October, a recession is taking shape in the UK

The situation is not improving in the United Kingdom, which, like many countries, is suffering from the effects of peak inflation. Exceeding 11% in one year, it has never been higher in 40 years, mainly due to rising energy prices.

What’s driving the country’s growth: While GDP rose 0.5% in October after falling 0.6% the previous month, the economy still contracted 0.3% in the past three months from a year earlier. According to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the previous three months. The drop in September was explained, among other things, by the national holiday for the funeral of Elizabeth II, which caused many businesses to close. As a result, GDP decreased by 0.2% in the third quarter.

According to the BoE, the country is already in recession

This indicates a recession. According to the technical definition, two consecutive quarters are characterized by a decline in growth. Therefore, we will have to wait for the December figures to find out whether these predictions are confirmed or not.

However, according to many forecasts, especially from the Bank of England (BoE), the country has already entered a recession that will continue into 2023 and even beyond. Great Britain warned the OECD at the end of November that the G7 rich countries should experience the worst economic performance in the next two years.

Is a mild recession so serious?

We have a tough road ahead of us.”

The outlook in the UK therefore remains gloomy. Witness what Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt had to say in a press release on Monday.

If today’s numbers show growth, frankly, we have a tough road ahead of us. »he said and added High inflation, exacerbated by (Vladimir) Putin’s illegal war (in Ukraine), is slowing growth around the world. »

It was the service and industrial sectors that dragged down the development. To whom on the contrary, Auto sales rebounded after a very weak September, and the healthcare sector also had a solid month », as well as construction, Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, noted on Twitter. However, while retail sales have rebounded, may be short-lived, promising another disappointing holiday season after supply chain issues » Last year, KPMG economist Yael Selfin said. Even if they (households) dip into their savings and increase their debts »their expenses may face a sustained decline next year »he added.

It is a difficult time for businesses and households. Inflation is still historically high and business growth, productivity and investment are very weak », also commented the major employers’ organization CBI. The government should address persistent poor investment and productivity », the statement of the organization says.

As Christmas approaches, the holidays increase

Holidays are on the rise in a country facing declining purchasing power. To whom Start with British nurses who have launched an unprecedented strike to get a pay rise. For the first time since the union was founded more than a century ago, up to 100,000 members of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will take part in the action over two days. Thursday and December 20.

Many other sectors are involved, from transport to logistics and mail distribution, including the oil industry, education, security, border police and even NGOs.

To whom so much so that in the middle of Christmas holidays, the army will be called in to provide a minimum service in vulnerable services during these holidays.

These repeated strikes will disrupt everyone, and that includes our military personnel, who will unfortunately have to mobilize and perform some vital functions. » The spokesman of the country’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said this last Thursday.

Discussions with the Ministry of Defense are ongoing » Thus, the remarkable replacement of paramedics by soldiers, the public health system is experiencing an unprecedented crisis, especially emergency services, he said.

(via AFP)