Inflation will accelerate in 2023

Rising prices are reaching levels not seen since the 1980s, eroding purchasing power and fueling pessimism. Even Bruno Le Maire agreed: inflation is not slowing down yet. “He [n’]“This peak of inflation, which has not passed yet and has been going on for several weeks, will continue for several more months.”The Minister of Economy, Finance and Industry and Digital Sovereignty admitted in an interview with Inter France on December 5.

According to this column from Elisabeth Borne’s government, inflation will slow in the first half of next year:

“Looking at the price of certain raw materials […], we see the beginning of a decline that could be passed on to consumer prices in mid-2023. This means that during 2023, I confirm that our calculations are that inflation should start to decline. »

Underestimates in 2022

In the financial bill (PLF) registered at the National Assembly on September 26, Elisabeth Borne’s government expected consumer price index inflation of 5.3% in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023. “annual average”.

According to a provisional estimate published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research (Insee) on November 30, consumer prices rose by 6.2% in November over a year compared to the previous month. According to the adjusted index determined by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union (EU), such a level corresponds to 7.1%, which is less than the average growth of the whole euro zone (10%).

Price increase on January 1

But there is a possibility that the price increase will accelerate. According to economist Marc Touati, price changes will be harsh early next year. “Manufacturers are renegotiating their prices with big retailers. Only on January 1, the increase in their costs will be available to consumers. There will be a statistical breakthrough”presents in an interview with Thanks for the information the president of the company oversees the economy and finance (Acdefi).

“The increase in the prices of food and manufactured products will be accompanied by an increase in the prices of gas and electricity”, recalls Marc Touati. Under the finance bill, the price shield applied to gas and electricity will be lowered in 2023. Price increases will be limited to 15% in gas in January and 15% in electricity in February.

Mark Touati mentions a point where the government has no control. “Inflation depends not only on us, but also on external elements such as climate factors and the war in Ukraine”the economist emphasizes.

Inflation up to 10%

According to our interlocutor’s forecasts, inflation calculated by the Eurostat methodology will approach 10% in France and 12% in the Eurozone. “Inflation will peak only in the spring. After the decline, inflation will remain high, around 4%. in the country, explains Marc Touati. Our interlocutor believes that the country has entered a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, defined by economists as a reduction of the gross domestic product (GDP) by at least two quarters. A business survey published by the Banque de France on December 8 contradicts this analysis. For the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP growth should stop […] around +0.1% compared to the previous quarter »moves the institution forward.

Gradual end “From the stage of high inflation, it always goes through the box of recession. In other words, the decrease in inflation will be caused by the decrease in demand, which will gradually fall below the supply. And that’s until mid-2023.”our interlocutor writes in his weekly newsletter Savings and strategies released on December 2. So far, the decline in activity has not led to a sharp increase in unemployment.

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