Government cuts growth target to 2.5% of GDP in 2022 against 4% forecast in budget

The political negotiations after the presidential elections held in April and the legislative elections held on June 12 and 19 have been repeatedly delayed. The government has finally adjusted its economic growth forecast for the current year: gross domestic product (GDP) should grow by only 2.5%, against the 4% forecast voted in the budget at the end of last year. , announced Tuesday, June Bersi. 28. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in late February, along with the difficulty of supplies from China, we knew the executive branch forecast was outdated. The new figure is slightly more optimistic than the Banque de France, which expected growth of 2.3%.

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On the other hand, despite the billions of euros the government spends to support French purchasing power, the public deficit should not increase. GDP is still expected to reach 5% in 2022, as expected at the end of 2021. Bersi justifies this good news with significantly better returns. “In 2022, we expect 55 billion euros more than expected, 30 of them [milliards] it comes from the dynamics of last year’s activity (…). Demonstrates that tax cuts and jobs-oriented policies provide wealth and funding for French defense.Gabriel Attal rejoiced in an interview with the Ministerial Representative for Public Accounts echoes, Wednesday, June 29. The increase in employment allowed for the collection of more social security contributions, as well as corporate tax and VAT receipts “very durable”Bercy says.

Also read: The article is reserved for our subscribers The topic of all negotiations is the purchasing power factor

However, the conversation is out of the question “cat”We appeal to the Ministry of Finance: “This word is absolutely unacceptable. » On the other hand, this deficit forecast “combines dimensions of purchasing power package”Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said that on July 6, the Council of Ministers will present the budget amendment project at the same time as the one whose value will be around 25 billion euros. “So we have no room for maneuver” To combine expensive offers from the opposition, we at Bercy are sure to offer “If you give one side, you will have to take the other”.

Extended fuel discount

However, the mayor suggested “To reach out to the responsible opposition” by offering echoes “Extending the discount period by 18 centimeters [par litre de carburant] Until the end of the year, if economic conditions require it”. Currently, the device is expected to be released after August.

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On the other hand, we exclude any tax on Bercy “excesses” of companies. “We prefer concrete effective measures for households”The 10-cent discount at the pump requested by Total boss Bruno Le Maire on Monday is being argued as an extension – on top of an 18-cent government discount until May. The banking and insurance sectors, as well as the ship owner CMA CGM, were surveyed. “gesture for transportation of raw building materials”.

The public debt is expected to be 111.9% of GDP at the end of the year against the initial forecast of 113.5%. Even if dynamism appears less strong than in 2021, the French economy should continue to create jobs (80,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2022). These forecasts are made with an average inflation forecast of 5% in 2022.

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These items were to be delivered on Tuesday to the Supreme Council of Public Finance, which is responsible for giving an opinion on the government’s assumptions. On the other hand, Bersi has not yet specified when the stability program, which should provide a medium-term picture of the budget trajectory, will be sent to Brussels. “In the coming weeks”, we promise. At the start of the school year, Bercy will also introduce five years of state funding programming legislation. “This will confirm the trajectory of returning the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2027”– says Mr. Attal.

As for the settlement law, it is intended to approve public accounts before 1er It is always suspended for the ministerial meeting in June of each year, perhaps on the 1st Fridayer july

Also read: Inflation in France accelerates to 5.2% in a year, consumption decreases even more

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