Can Joe Biden really claim the best result for the Democrats in 40 years?

A less severe defeat than expected. Two days into the midterm elections, Democrats are at risk of losing their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. But without the Republican tidal wave heralded by certain polls. The final results of the vote are not yet known, but that didn’t stop Joe Biden from congratulating himself during a press conference on Wednesday, November 9.

“While the press and polls predicted a red tide, it didn’t happen. In the first midterm elections in four decades, we lost fewer seats in the House than any Democratic president.”, he declaredhello “It’s a good day for democracy”.

How many of the 220 House Democrats are likely to lose before the election? And is it really something that has not been seen in recent decades? Franceinfo confirmed what the American president said.

According to calculations, the Democrats are short between 6 and 19 seats

According to the partial results of Thursday, November 10, provided by the Associated Press agency*, we know the colors of only 391 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives: 207 for Republicans, 184 for Democrats. There are 44 waiting places left. To understand where Joe Biden draws his analysis, we need to look at the American media’s estimates based on historical scores by state and district, candidates running, and therefore the likelihood that the remaining seats will go one way or the other. or the other.

So according to New York Times*, Democrats will win 202 seats in the worst case, and 217 in the most favorable scenario. These estimates vary by media. Bloomberg * Counts 201 to 220 for the Biden camp, FiveThirtyEight* It gives between 203 and 216 and Washington post* Tables with 214 or 215 seats. As a result, keeping worst and best guesses in mind, we can estimate that Democrats will likely place between 201 and 220. This is a net loss of 2 to 19 compared to the outgoing hemisphere.

Midterm elections are almost always against the president’s party

Although the Democratic Party arithmetically lost seats and a potential majority in the House of Representatives, this does not mean a more severe defeat than in the previous midterm elections. These requests is generally positive for the opposition due to voters’ willingness to create a stronger counter-power to the president..

Actually, on In the previous 19 midterm elections, whether Democratic or Republican, the president’s party won the seat only twice. On average, between 1946 and 2018, it lost an even 26. So the Biden camp really limited the break.

The biggest failure was recorded in 2010 by Barack Obama. That year, Republicans won 63 seats from Democrats in the lower house. Conservatives were also not left out of the sanctions votes during the midterm elections. In 2018, Donald Trump thus faced a “blue wave” and saw his party lose 40 votes in the House of Representatives.

There is probably no record for this midterm election

Is this election a record for Democrats, as Joe Biden said? Thankfully, the American president is careful to add an important detail: he only compares the first midterm elections of Democratic presidents, not what happened during their second terms. Only two of the ten midterms meet these criteria: 1994 (when Bill Clinton was in office) and 2010 (during Obama’s first term). As you can see from the graph above, the former led to the Democrats losing 52 seats, and the latter 63. If the estimates for 2022 are confirmed, even in the worst-case scenario for Joe Biden’s party, his statement is true.

All midterm elections (held during a Democratic or Republican presidency) combined, the two best results being Bill Clinton’s second term in 1998 (+5 seats for Democrats) and George W. Bush in 2002 (+). 6 seats for Republicans).

In 1998, voters sanctioned Republicans who began impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton after his affair with Monica Lewinsky. the attemptimpeachmentHe played in favor of the Democratic president, who was considered offensive by some Americans. Mid-term elections were held in 2002, a year after the 9/11 attacks, which allowed George W. Bush to enjoy a popularity rating of around 68% at the time.

* These links refer to content in English.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *