Scenarios for the collapse of the Kremlin are increasingly clear, but it is very difficult to imagine a post-Putin situation
Many believe that the next meeting of the G20 may be an opportunity to accelerate the course of history.
©Alexey Druzhinin / Sputnik / AFP
Between coup d’états, palace rebellion, oligarchs or the street, all speculations can imagine Putin’s ouster. But it is very unlikely. Diplomatic and economic circles are instead betting on the collapse of the Russian system due to lack of funds.
The Foreign Office Review published an analysis by political scientist Daniel Tressman‘university From CaliforniaWhich very clearly summarizes and unites all the scenarios of the evolution of power in Moscow hypotheseseMany big bosses of multinational companies are working on ways to save the benefits of globalization. These big bosses think that China will try to recover‘discipline in this realignment of political forces.
But these scenarios provide little insight into what might happen nextesl‘The fall of Putin. Which form of government, with which person, with which ideology?
Daniel Tressman is a professor of geopolitics at the university‘UCA is also a consultanteNumerous international organizations including the World Bank and the IMF. He is considered‘He is one of the best connoisseurs of the government and system in RussiaeI was appointed by Vladimir Putin.
The analysis is initially based on the view that Putin’s regime cannot achieve its goals and is clearly doomed. Never in the history of the world have we seen a dictator survive either military defeat or (which is more subtle) inflation. Neither the environment nor the people can forgive the dictator for the military failure that deprived him of the means of self-defense. Moreover, very few authoritarian regimes survive an inflationary explosion. It has no single way to fix the economic shocks that prevent it from proposing a project of economic progress.
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Vladimir Putin is certainly at risk on both fronts: military and economic. The question that no serious expert can answer is the date of the collapse. Moreover, in the example of Russia, no one knows for sure who can seize power and in what form. On the other hand, according to Daniel Tressman, the change scenarios are quite clear, he does not give them the same probability.
1er in the scenario, a coup d’état within the first circle of power that comes to anyone’s mind, whether in large international companies or in the secret services, is very unlikely. This could be a coup d’état instigated by the hard-hearted of Putin’s entourage, especially the leaders of the Wagner company and Chechnya. These two groups smear the official military and push Vladimir Putin to destroy Ukraine.
This scenario is unlikely since the two key officials are not well liked by the ruling elite in Moscow and especially by the Russian people.Let’s add that they are rivals and do not get along with each other.
2e a scenario where Putin is overthrown by one of his direct subordinates in the military or intelligence services, such as the former KGB, or even the national and private guards. It is possible, but here again these services are not compatible with each other and are more competitors and very independent.
3e According to the scenario, a coup could certainly be organized by moderates who are in favor of finding a non-violent compromise. As soon as they removed Gorbachev and replaced him with Boris Yeltsin. In addition, at that time there was a political bureau, a kind of board that made decisions and implemented them. The Politburo no longer exists, and Vladimir Putin decides everything on his own.
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Thus, the assumption that Vladimir Putin can smoothly exit and even prepare a successor seems completely illusory.On the side of the oligarchs, this is a waiting position. They all owe their fortunes to Vladimir Putin, but some predate him. They are trying to save furniture and keep businesses running, which is not so easy.
4e scenario, and for this study, it is likely to pass through the collapse of Putin’s system. The system is pyramidal, everything goes back to the president. It works thanks to the trust in the president. If that trust is broken, as it is now, everything can fall apart. Orders are not transmitted or bad, Putin is not aware of the realities, so he makes bad decisions. The administration no longer works, the army does not work due to lack of funds, etc. etc. The system is rotting from within and every cog is trying to save their skin and means of survival.
During this period of disintegration, Russia was highly centralized and could function thanks to three highly decentralized power structures.
– District governors and city mayors who are in direct contact with the population and can take the initiative to govern without the instructions of Moscow
– Business leaders, some of them are more or less wealthy oligarchs, put competent people in charge of factories or businesses.
-Mafia leaders who will take advantage of this confusion. Moreover, corruption has been a part of Russian practice since the Soviet era.
This latter scenario is considered the most likely, especially since Russia’s international isolation will intensify and contribute to its strangulation.
International economic circles do not exclude the inevitable and strong intervention of Xi Jinping with his “pseudo-friend Vladimir Putin” to end this war, and even invite him to step down by offering him asylum. international protest sanctions. Xi Jinping’s obsession is to revive an economy badly damaged by the disastrous handling of Covid and international unrest. China must restore international trade flows. China’s leaders today see Russia as an obstacle to free international trade.
So no one can establish a priori the calendar of these events, but they can go very quickly.Many believe that the next meeting of the G20 may be an opportunity to accelerate the course of history. The next G20, which brings together the world’s 20 most powerful heads of state and government, will be held in Bali on November 15 and 20, 2022.
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