Ukraine: Xi Jinping will force Putin to sign a peace agreement
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the official ceremony.
©Alexey DRUZHIN/SPUTNIK/AFP
Atlantico Business
Business circles predict an exit scenario from the war that politicians do not believe. For them, the war in Ukraine will end with the defeat of Vladimir Putin, and they believe that the world economic situation can return to balance by the end of 2023 under the pressure of China.
At a time when the political and media circles are afraid of the intensification of the military war and the deterioration of the economic and social situation, the business circles are not the first to find a way out of the crisis.
Until then, financial or money markets had not experienced panics. On the contrary. And when they are worried, they are actually less afraid of the effects of geopolitics and the military than they are of the premature reactions of central banks addicted to raising interest rates. or politicians whose short-term certainty is often needed in the medium or long term.
In general, the business community is neither naive nor pessimistic. They are sometimes cynical, but always more pragmatic.
The most shared scenarios in the board are organized in three acts. As in the theater.
Act 1: China will signal for the end. The “hardening” of the Beijing regime only strengthens this assumption. In fifteen days (before the G20 in Bali) or two months, President Xi Jinping must contact or meet his comrade Putin and tell him to end what the Russian leadership calls a “special operation.” The Chinese president must do everything to achieve a ceasefire and promote peace talks, for one reason only: to end global economic unrest. China is completely part of globalization. It must trade with the West to provide the growth it needs for a population thirsty for prosperity. The number of Chinese is more than one billion, and this billion needs to grow, otherwise China’s social and political balance is at risk.
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Act 2: world trade may therefore resume a steady pace in a more subdued energy and commodity price balance. Thus, 2023 will be the end of the crisis, but the beginning of a period of structural change related to the fight against global warming, which will require significant investment in many areas, not only in the electricity sector.
Act 3: global capitalism will probably be more diversified than it has been in the pasthis partners. Will hire suppliers and customers that respect international legal norms and agreements; but suppliers that respect the basic rules of labor law and environmental restrictions.
Managements may introduce elements of incentives or sanctions in this process, but they will not be driving forces.. The drivers of change will be driven by business leadership under the pressure of markets, i.e. organizations of workers, consumers and shareholders.
In this context, authoritarian countries that do not respect human rights and do not respect customs and traditions formed during the Enlightenment period will be expelled from the globalized society. No one in Russia believes that after Putin leaves office, Russia will remain marginalized in opposition to the West. On the contrary, after Putin’s departure, we can witness the liberalization of Russian society and an institutional evolution that leaves more room for democracy than at present.
The evolution in China will be different. Because China needs the West so much, the Chinese will not demand deep changes at home. At worst, China’s leadership could use the next 20 or 30 years to somewhat emancipate a civil society yearning for change.
But everywhere in the world, we will be cautious and careful to ensure that business regains its rights.
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